Posted by Don in Hollister on June 01, 2001 at 09:40:07:
Hi Canie. It appears they have lifted the warning for the Crystal Springs area. They now have one at Black Pt. which is near the southern end of the Rodgers Creek fault. I looked at the data, but have no idea as to why they would issue a warning, as I don't see anything like what was seen at Crystal Springs. There was a small spike on the 29th but no warning was issued then although the data was indicated as being incomplete. I'm learning how the to read the data, but still lack the understanding. Hopefully that will come with time. I know from past experience with the USGS data I can see a strain build up and the quake will occur after there is a drop in the strain. If the drop is slow more often as not there will not be a quake, but if its fast there will almost always be a quake. Based on what I have seen so far with the Crystal Springs data the change in the magnetic field may have to hold for length of time. We can see that it has been very erratic over a number of weeks and there have been no small quakes during that time. I check the USGS data for the Bay Area and other then the spastic creep there is still no indication of strain build up. I'm not sure if this is correct or not, but the magnetics indicated E/W which would mean that it's not associated with the San Andreas fault. It could be on a fault that is parallel to the San Andreas, but doubt that it would be the Hayward fault as there is not a good indication there. There appears to be what I feel is a lot of noise. If this is true then the indications were seeing with the Crystal Springs data could be associated with the San Grogorio fault. There is also the chance that the data itself is bad. Take Care…Don in creepy town.
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