Challis, ID comes through for Don
Posted by Lowell on May 31, 2001 at 14:19:05:

On May 18, Don posted the following earthquake prediction:
Posted by Don in Hollister on May 18, 2001 at 14:13:07:

Magnitude: 1.5M/3.5M
From: 05/28/2001 - To: 06/02/2001
Location: Challis, Idaho Area
Lat: 44.5N - Long: 113.4W - Range: 40K

According to the MBMG web page, the following earthquake occurred
today:

May 31, 20001 08:54:22 44.5N 112.9W ML=2.1 C 30 km SW of Lima

This epicenter is 39 km from Don's predicted event, and occurs
within the stated location, time and magnitude parameters. This
prediction is correct in all regards. You're on a roll Don, keep
up the good work.

There have been 7 days on which earthquake of Ml>=2 have occurred
within 40 km of the predicted epicenter during the past 3 years.
This translates to a 0.006 daily probability of such an earthquake.
Don's prediction covers a period of 5 days, so the probability
of an event in this period is about 0.03 (odds of about 1 in 33).
This is a statistically significant prediction.
No earthquakes in this region in the past 3 years have exceeded
Ml 2.5. Five have been marginally larger than today's earthquake.

For data on Montana/Idaho earthquakes see:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/mbmgsun.mtech.edu/name=quake/border=1



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Challis, ID comes through for Don - Petra Challus  21:22:33 - 5/31/2001  (7824)  (0)
     ● U. Utah event determination - Lowell  14:26:01 - 5/31/2001  (7822)  (0)