Re: Los Angeles Basin Long Overdue for Major Earthquake
Posted by heartland chris on February 13, 2011 at 06:28:41:

Interesting link. If John V. reads this post, he might want to comment. This is from Ray Weldon and the late Tom Fumal (I did not know he had died) and others from hat group. They are the ones who showed the San Andreas fault at Wrightwoood was episodic in its earthquake history. This got the whole discussion going of whether the most likely place for an earthquake was near where there had already been one (and I'm not talking about aftershock on the same fault). I'm not sure whether we were communicating correctly, but I think John doubted my "10 months pregnant" comment here about a year and a half ago, me reporting on a presentation at a SCEC meeting.

Weldon and all seem to clearly think that loading of a faulgt by plate motions matters, and quakes are fairly regular on the southern San Andreas. The article mentioned development along the fault north of Salton Sea, but that is not the real problem: such a quake, if it were to rupture all the way up to, say, Palmdale, could be dealy in Los Angeles, according to the 3D ground motion modeling plus engineers.
Chris