Good for you Don. Let's get out of the business of name-calling and
back to the business of predicting earthquakes.

Have you decided to patent your "gut" yet and sell it to Menlo
Park as a scientific instrument. On the basis of your recent results
based on your gut, you might have a good case.

Just to remind the reader of the last earthquake Don predicted
for the area off the Coast of Oregon. The prediction was:

Posted by Don in Hollister on May 08, 2001 at 21:40:31:

Magnitude: 2.5 to 3.5
From: 05/15/2001 PST - To: 05/19/2001 PST
Location: Off Coast of Oregon
Lat: 44.6N - Long: 128.0W - Range: 16Km

The following earthquakes were observed (NEIS):
YE MO DA HRMNSC LATIT LONGIT MAG LOCATION

2001 05 20 12:15:42 44.1N 128.3W MB=4.3 OFF COAST OF OREGON
2001 05 17 02:00:42 43.7N 128.6W MB=3.1 OFF COAST OF OREGON

See web site:
http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/qed/qed.html

The first is several hours too late, the second nearly 100 km
off in location, but with other paramters within the predicted
limits.
The statistics of events within 60 km of Don's predicted location
for this earthquake are interesting. Since 1963 there have been
39 earthquakes with Ml>=2.5 within 60 km of 44.6N 128.0W (chosen
to include both the predicted epicenter and the event on May 20).
Don believed this earthquake would be less than Ml 3.6 with
good statistical reasons. Of the 39 earthquakes recorded in this
area, 32 have had Ml>3.6. This suggests there are a lot of
earthquakes in the area that are not being recorded with ML<3.6.
Anyway, Don anticipated a recorded event so we might think that
any event recorded could be considered a "hit".
During the past 38 years, 13 earthquakes have been recorded
in the area with ML>4.3 (about 1 every 3 years). The last event
of Ml>4.3 occurred on May 23, 1990 and was the largest event
ever recorded in this region (Ml 5.0). The Ml 4.3 on May 20, 2001
was the largest earthquake in the area since the Ml 5.0 in 1990.
So much for Don only predicting insignificant regional events.
Given the past 14 years of earthquakes in this region, an event
of ML>=4.3 is expected once in this time period, a daily probability
of 0.00019 or a probability of 0.001 in a 5-day period. The chances
of getting this right were about 1 in a thousand.
Not too shabby Don, but next time use a larger radius than
17 km - nobody is that good!!

And by the way - should we expect this newest prediction to
come to pass?

You be the judge

• Data from NEIS