EQF;

The problem with your position is that it leads to people ignoring your warnings.

If you start issuing warnings without validating your method you'll have more misses than hits and that will lead to people rejecting them out of hand.

I know this for a fact. I've seen it happen at NEIC.

So when you're right, people will die anyway.

The other side of the coin is that people who believe you and act on your prediction will still die when you're wrong. Case in point, Sumatra. The tsunami happened after Berkland's window closed. Anyone there who believed him and relaxed, died.

Roger