Several years ago another researcher and I did a lengthy independent analysis of Shan's method. I believe that the report that we prepared on it can probably still be found somewhere attached to Shan's Web page.

One of the most important things to remember about forecasting methods is this: If people try them and they don't work then they have lost some time. If they don't try them and they would have worked then they will likely to have lost lives, probably many lives.

What is more important, some lost research time, or tens and hundreds of thousands of lost lives?