Posted by Roger Hunter on May 31, 2010 at 21:14:55:
Amit; Here are the results for mag 7+ quakes,2001 to 2010 using all your predictions as though you had predicted 7+ quakes. Based on your planet direction changing data using a 31 day window (15 days before and after). Jones probability calculation 66 31 day windows 46 hits (One or more quakes per window) Odds .697 (46/66) Hits per Jones window (av.) 1.2 (66/46) Mag 7+ quakes from NEIC catalog 79 quakes 22 hits out of 34 predictions. 23.7 hits expected. (79*0.697) 35 quakes in prediction windows. Average hits per prediction: 1 (34/34) Just chance Roger
|