Amit;

Removing clusters is very important. For example in a hypothetical month there is a large quake with a number of aftershocks, a total of 30 quakes in one day.

What are the odds on hitting a quake with a one day window? Do we say 30 quakes in 30 days so the odds are 100%? Or do we say one hit window in 30 windows so the odds are 3.3%?

For the first 4 months of 2010 there were 32 quakes of mag 6+. You made 10 predictions during that period and got 8 hits using a 3 day window.

Roger