Hi Canie,

This is a note to help explain what is taking place right now in the EarthWaves board. You have probably not seen too much like this happen in the past.

An important area of science is in my opinion finally starting to undergo a significant change for the better.

Some Background Information

During my free time I work on projects that involve developing solutions for problems that threaten the health and lives of people around the world. Earthquake forecasting is just one of the many. As I have said in other notes, I personally believe that the single most important material problem threatening people’s health and lives is our global shortage of environmentally safe, affordable energy. And I have spent quite a bit of time working on that project over the years and have had some outstanding successes. For example, a large city near where I live presently has a very strong alternate energy development, usage, and conservation program. That might have resulted in part from some of my efforts. But when there is a success I don’t write a book about it but simply move on to the next project.

Earthquake Forecasting

My data are indicating to me that it should actually be fairly simple and inexpensive to forecast a good percentage of our earthquakes. For example, probably all you need to do is collect data from people around the world who can hear “Ear Tones” and then process the data in the right manner. Perhaps 1 person in 1000 can hear Ear Tones associated with a nearby fault zone. So in a city of a million people there could in theory be as many as 1000 people who could generate the data.

Say 100 of them in Los Angeles and 100 in San Francisco were sending in data on a regular basis. At any given time 20 people in each city might be reporting hearing Ear Tones. But when an earthquake was headed for San Francisco there might be 40 in Los Angeles reporting in and 70 in San Francisco reporting in. And, based on sheer numbers like that it would be possible to tell that some seismic activity could be headed for San Francisco. Researchers could then check over a wide area for other precursors such as large fresh cracks in building foundations.

Also, if the people sent in the times that they heard the Ear Tones then my computer program could be used to tell where the fault zone was located that caused the Ear Tone to be generated. It would provide accurate data for a fairly good percentage of the Ear Tones.

So, the people would probably be willing to send in their Ear Tone data for free. My computer program is freeware. What could be simpler and less expensive?

Now if you asked most mainstream scientists if they would be willing to run a program like that I believe that they would probably say “No, there is no proof that it would work and we don’t want to waste our time.” But if you were really able to get them to be honest about it they would probably say, “No, we won’t run it because people would laugh at us.”

So, something that might work and save lots of lives won’t be attempted because people in the scientific community are afraid of little ridicule. That is nothing new.

Back to my own program. And, I don’t circulate earthquake warnings based solely on Ear Tones.

As I said, I work on projects that are aimed at solving health and life threatening problems. Generally I can get something done by simply finding some group of people who want to solve the problem and who are looking for some technical information that will get them past something that is blocking the way. My scientific background is deep enough in most areas that I can often develop a plan for getting around whatever technical problem is holding things up. Those people then do the actual work to solve the problem using the information that I give them.

With earthquake forecasting, because the science is so heavily immersed in government and scientific community politics it has been virtually impossible to find any groups that have the necessary technical resources to move the science forward and who are actually willing to buck those politics hurtles and do something.

In such cases I simply keep on working on the problem myself until it gets to a point where it is either solved or some group is finally willing to start working on it.

During the past few weeks and months my forecasting program finally reached the point where I can generate fairly accurate and reliable data in an efficient manner. There are still many improvements that can and should be made. But it is actually finally working.

So, this forecast program development effort is now moving into its next phase. This involves generating data, circulating the data, and letting people know that the data are available, what they mean, and how to use them.

The EarthWaves board is being used to help circulate that information with reports such as those Haiti and California analysis postings. And researchers around the world are being advised to read them.

One of the reasons for all of the “noise” that you are now seeing in the EarthWaves board is because over the years, decades, and centuries people have gotten comfortable with the thought that earthquakes can’t be predicted. And when someone says something different that comfort level is reduced and people get upset. The proverbial “Apple cart” is being tilted. But instead of trying to understand the data, people will often instead choose to simply hurl insults at one another to try to stop any progress through the use of intimidation and ridicule.

Also, people like to maintain control over their own areas of science. They don’t want scientists from other areas of science appearing and then doing the work that they themselves should be doing. The other scientists might then get credit for it. Heaven help us! That can’t be allowed.

In summary, much of the recent EarthWaves noise could be described as “Growing Pains.” In my opinion, a long lasting life threatening problem is starting to get solved. And people who don’t like the change or the way that the change is being made are being highly vocal about it.

This is not a unique situation. Just look at all of the noise the health insurance industry has been making over the proposed changes in healthcare legislation.

Just ignore the noise unless some of the skeptics get really out of control as has happened in the past on occasion. Roger is obviously a skeptic. But he is also a professional researcher. And he knows that professionals don’t launch personal attacks against other people in an effort to maintain control over an important science.

Finally, this effort is working. Important people in the international scientific community are starting to respond and actually ask me by E-mail for my opinion regarding the likelihood of an earthquake occurring here or there. They are looking for second opinions as confirmation for their own forecasting data.

These are personal opinions.