Re: Earthquake Aftershock Forecasting January 14, 2010
Posted by mrrabbit on January 15, 2010 at 10:08:35:

He's an opportunist - and this is the second time upon which his exercise of an opportunity to make himself look good involves dancing upon the graves of those who just died. I nailed him for this the last time...and here we are again.

He's been asked over and over by Roger, John, myself and others:

"Where's your prediction that includes: geographical parameters, date range, and starting magnitude?"

He never makes any, and continues to try to pass off "advisories", "warnings", "observations" and "notices of signals" as successful predictions AFTER a given quake happens.

Lately, he has been posting forecast data (NOT actual forecasts, BUT forecast data) that includes fancy graphs and charts showing supposed EM spikes and all...

YET always stops just short of saying something like the following:


I predict that there will be an earthquake within the following parameters:

Locale = Box defined by 33N to 31N, 121E to 122E
Magnitude = 4.0+
Window = January 1, 2009 GMT thru January 10, 2009 - GMT

But the minute an earthquake occurs that makes the top of the hour news - he shows up and points to his "advisories", "forecast data", etc...and claims success - of course while ducking the fact as pointed out by others that he provided no predicton with minimal parameters noted above.

Pretty sick...

Remember the basic principle in effect here...doesn't matter if you are a scientist or not - if you think you are making observations that show some kind of correlation - that is not proof - your are not done. You AND others have to test. Here, the test necessitates predictions which are then scored. That ultimately determines whether are not you actually have something that needs some serious examination.

Roger Hunter here does a lot of the statistical scoring and analysis here...the man is good at it. If you think you have a method that has something going for it - then test it. Post your predictions here. Score 'em...others will say "yea" or "nay". At some point Roger will say:

"Nope...52%...not much better than chance..."

OR

"Hmmm...62%...somewhat better than chance...maybe you are on to something...."


Until EQF shows some real steel spheres at a certain anatomical extremity and puts his hypothesis and tools to the test with actual predictions...

...he is just a snake selling snake oil.

=8-)


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake Aftershock Forecasting January 14, 2010 - Canie  20:02:33 - 1/15/2010  (76455)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Aftershock Forecasting January 14, 2010 - mrrabbit  20:38:08 - 1/15/2010  (76456)  (0)
     ● Re: Earthquake Aftershock Forecasting January 14, 2010 - Tony  10:58:37 - 1/15/2010  (76442)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Aftershock Forecasting January 14, 2010 - PennyB  11:51:41 - 1/15/2010  (76449)  (0)