Sorry, but the prediction was

21MAY2001 37.3 N 118.7 W 2.0-3.5 Mammoth Lakes
within 32 km. *** OR *** Magnitude: 2.0-4.0
From: 05/19/2001 - To: 05/25/2001
Location: Mammoth Lakes
Lat: 37.5N - Long: 118.7W - Range: 32

and so it would have been a hit on EITHER time specification. So you can't just score it on half the scope.

Frankly, I'm not impressed by predictions of 2.8 ML events in any circumstances, unless it's for some region like the Faroes (where it would be the maximum ever earthquake).

If a 2.8 generates a perceptible signal, then a 3.8 should generate a huge unmissable signal (one assumes the size of the event must play some role). Yet I have often seen people claiming successes for titchy events and overlooking their failure to predict something much bigger the next week. I've argued about this often with Dennis.

Incidentally, whoever predicted Dennis would be back soon has not had their prediction fulfilled yet, I notice.