predicting aftershocks
Posted by John Vidale on October 25, 2009 at 17:16:27:

A couple of points:

1. One can beat chance by issuing more predictions during times of higher background seismicity, which may only demonstrate the existence of aftershocks.

2. If one is barely beating chance with very many predictions, perhaps due to predicting aftershocks, then the usefulness of those predictions for public safety is nil.