M5+ Quake Count
Posted by Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande on October 02, 2009 at 07:34:35:

In retrospect, the count of average earthquakes > M5.0/day that I mentioned (actually a little below 9/day) must be very strongly influenced by aftershocks. Using the very small sample at

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

(7 days, with four of those prior to the large quakes near Samoa/Tonga and Indonesia), the M5.0+ count prior to the quakes was only about 2/day, increasing to 17 on the 29th (date of Samoa quake), 24 on the 30th (date of Indonesia quake), 14 on the 1st of October, and 8 so far today.

The count of M5.0+ quakes over a thousand miles away from the large quakes remains at exactly 2/day from the 29th onward (one so far today).

From this short and amateurish analysis, I can see no reason to associate Central California's M5.0 on Oct. 1 with either of the two large quakes on the 29th and 30th.

Mike W.