Re: Earthquake Forecasting Computer Program Status May 27, 2009
Posted by EQF on May 28, 2009 at 23:11:09:

That report is not a technical discussion. Instead it looks at earthquake forecasting politics. And that subject has been discussed here repeatedly in the past.

Basically,

If an earthquake is accurately predicted then the government involved might have to evacuate an entire city. That is an incredibly expensive and dangerous thing to do. So you need to be certain about the forecast before attempting that.

Most of the forecasts that are being generated at this time are not very accurate. Or they don’t contain enough information to let government officials know how accurate they are and what type of response people need to make to the forecasts.

As a consequence, government officials don’t know what they should do when they see a forecast. So they largely ignore them and hope that there won’t be an earthquake. Usually there isn’t one. However with that one forecast before the destructive April 6, 2009 earthquake in Italy the forecast data were actually reasonably accurate. The forecast was largely ignored. And quite a few people died who might have been saved.

Another of the consequences of all of this is that government officials appear to be strongly opposed to funding earthquake forecasting research projects. One of the reasons is that they are afraid that the researchers will actually start predicting earthquakes. And then the officials will have to start making politically dangerous decisions regarding whether or not to evacuate cities. It is much safer for their careers to simply say that “Earthquakes can’t be predicted” and refuse to hire any scientists who think that it might be possible to predict them.

These are personal opinions.


Follow Ups:
     ● Question - Boyko Iliev  03:17:52 - 5/29/2009  (75365)  (1)
        ● A Message For Earthquake Forecasters May 29, 20009 - EQF  17:55:37 - 5/29/2009  (75366)  (0)