Thought it might be time to revisit Don's prediction(s) of several days
ago for the area off the coast of Oregon.
Don predicted:

Magnitude: 2.0-3.0
From: 5/8/2001PST - To: 5/12.2001PST
Location: Off Coast of Oregon
Lat: 42.1N - Long: 125.0W - Range: 32K

An earthquake was recorded by PNSN yesterday with the following
parameters:

ML=2.6 2001/05/10 13:51:34 42.1N 124.5W 31.3 53 km NNW of Crescent City, CA

See: http://www.geophys.washington.edu/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

This event is located 41 km from the epicenter predicted by Don.
PNSN, however tends to locate events about 15-20 km closer to shore
than they actually occur because of the placement of the seismographic
network. This means that the event is probably closer to 42.1N 124.7W
and the distance from Don's predicted epicenter around 20-30 km. The
event occurred in the middle of the time period predicted and in the
middle of the magnitude range predicted and in the area predicted -
Off the Coast of Oregon.
Since the prediction seems correct in all parameters, it is useful
to see how often such an event occurs in this region - that is, the
background rate of events. Since October 6, 1997, there has been only
one event with Ml>=2.5 within 50 km of today's epicenter (an area
including the predicted epicenter and surrounds). So, in 3.5 years
1 event would have matched Don's prediction randomly, a daily rate
of occurrence of 0.0008 (or for the 4 days in the forecast, a
probability of around 0.003. The odds of occurrence within the
time frame specified are therefore around 3 in a thousand. By the
way, 25 events have been recorded in the area of Ml>=2.5 since 1900
about 1 every 4 years.
I'd say this prediction is highly improbable in a random sense.
Roger may want to test this using Chi Square. Anyway, keep watching
that "gut", Don. Look's like you're onto something.

Don actually made two separate forecasts for the area off the
Coast of Oregon. The second was for an event farther out and
was:

Magnitude: 2.5 to 3.5
From: 05/15/2001 PST - To: 05/19/2001 PST
Location: Off Coast of Oregon
Lat: 44.6N - Long: 128.0W - Range: 16Km

NEIS reports the following event today:

11May2001 04:25:00.4 43.6N 127.3W 10 MB=4.5 M NEI OFF COAST OF OREGON

Also a pretty good match to the prediction, but the predicted time
is still not here. This event may, however, indicate more activity
in the next several days.

There was a series of 8 microearthquakes (up to Ml 2.0) in the
Parkfield area today. You might want to ask Don about observations
he made to me by e-mail yesterday on Parkfield Instrumentation.

Anyway, mark one (or two) (or three) up on the plus side for Don.

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