Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method
Posted by Michael Tolchard on March 11, 2009 at 14:44:04:

"I believe that there are already a number of Web sites out there that allow people to make predictions for whatever they wish. And they put a time stamp on the prediction."

I would be interested in checking them out, can you give me the URLs? I've never seem one ...

"If you are simply planning on organizing something like that then I doubt that anyone would use it. It has been my experience that people tend to ignore such things. Instead, the data need to be easy to evaluate in a minimum amount of time."

I agree. If somebody or some organization wishes to evaluate the data quickly, then automation is the way to go, and that is what the this is all about.

"A practical Web page (CGI driven) that forecasters around the world might actually make use of could display a time axis. Forecast time windows would then have a line going from left to right for each prediction that would show what the time window was.

At the left of the line or just beneath it or whatever would be information on when the forecast was made, latitude, longitude, a personal ID etc.

Site visitors could direct the CGI program to sort and display the forecasts by time window, personal ID, latitude, longitude, forecasting method etc.
"

Yep, data can be sliced and diced any way that makes sense, and if I don't, 3rd parties can write APIs that will do such tings.

"Researchers around the world interested in the information could quickly look at the chart and see who had a time prediction window open for what part of the world."


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method - EQF  10:00:47 - 3/12/2009  (74857)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method - Michael Tolchard  10:10:09 - 3/12/2009  (74858)  (0)