Posted by Lowell on May 06, 2001 at 17:17:35:
Canie, I did a few calculations on a portion of the pattern you have described. Since we are supposed to be learning something about earthquake prediction on this board, I thought I would share this statistical prediction with you and the board. An interesting series of earthquakes is occurring in the Gulf of California region. O: 06May2001 13:50:14 23.8N 108.7W MB=4.5 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA O: 06May2001 10:11:59 23.9N 108.7W MB=4.5 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA O: 04May2001 23:57:15 24.0N 108.9W MB=4.4 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA O: 04May2001 16:07:57 24.1N 108.7W MB=4.7 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA Since 1900, 312 events of Mb>=4.5 have been reported within 500 km of today's epicenters. It has been suggested that earthquakes in this area more often than not precede earthquake in the region of Southern California of Ml>=4.0. To test this we have used the Jones method (supplied by Roger Hunter). We believe this is a useful technique to use when individual events are being predicted. 674 of the the 1315 10-day periods during the time 1964-2001 have had an associated earthquake of Ml>=4.0 in the southern California region (51% of windowed periods). In the same time frame, 171 10-day periods have seen at least one event within 500 km today's swarm of Ml>=4.5. Of these 171 windows, 107 also saw an event of Ml>=4.0 in southern California within 10-days following the Baja event(s). The background probability of at least one event in a 10-day window in So. California of Ml>=4.0 is therefore 0.513 (674/1315). On the other hand during the 10-day windows following Baja events, the probability of at least one event in So. California of Ml>=4.0 is 0.62 (107/171). Previous random distributions for this area suggest that an 11% increase in seismicity is statistically significant at levels > 0.999. On this basis a statistical prediction can be made that there is a 22% chance increase ((0.62/0.51)*100) above background that an earthquake of Ml>=4 will occur in the next 10 days (through May 15) in the area of Southern California (31-36N 124-114W). Tectonically, this result makes sense. Movement along the transform faults making up the ocean floor along the Gulf of Mexico moves one side of those faults with respect to the other. This strain from this motion can be transferred northward into the transform faults of Southern California, resulting in increased seismicity in that area.
Follow Ups:
● Re: Pattern I've seen... - Canie 19:52:14 - 5/6/2001 (7426) (1)
● Re: Pattern I've seen... - Lowell 23:00:23 - 5/7/2001 (7456) (0)
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