Re: Pattern I've seen...
Posted by Lowell on May 06, 2001 at 17:17:35:

Canie,
I did a few calculations on a portion of the pattern you have described.
Since we are supposed to be learning something about earthquake prediction
on this board, I thought I would share this statistical prediction with you and
the board.
An interesting series of earthquakes is occurring in the Gulf of
California region.
O: 06May2001 13:50:14 23.8N 108.7W MB=4.5 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA
O: 06May2001 10:11:59 23.9N 108.7W MB=4.5 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA
O: 04May2001 23:57:15 24.0N 108.9W MB=4.4 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA
O: 04May2001 16:07:57 24.1N 108.7W MB=4.7 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA


Since 1900, 312 events of Mb>=4.5 have been reported within
500 km of today's epicenters. It has been suggested that earthquakes
in this area more often than not precede earthquake in the region of
Southern California of Ml>=4.0. To test this we have used the Jones
method (supplied by Roger Hunter). We believe this is a useful
technique to use when individual events are being predicted.
674 of the the 1315 10-day periods during the time 1964-2001 have had an
associated earthquake of Ml>=4.0 in the southern California region (51% of windowed periods).
In the same time frame, 171 10-day periods have seen at least one event
within 500 km today's swarm of Ml>=4.5. Of these 171 windows,
107 also saw an event of Ml>=4.0 in southern California within 10-days following
the Baja event(s).
The background probability of at least one event in a 10-day window in So.
California of Ml>=4.0 is therefore 0.513 (674/1315). On the other hand during the
10-day windows following Baja events, the probability of at least
one event in So. California of Ml>=4.0 is 0.62 (107/171). Previous
random distributions for this area suggest that an 11% increase in
seismicity is statistically significant at levels > 0.999.
On this basis a statistical prediction can be made that there is a 22% chance
increase ((0.62/0.51)*100) above background that an earthquake of Ml>=4
will occur in the next 10 days (through May 15) in the area of Southern California
(31-36N 124-114W).

Tectonically, this result makes sense. Movement along the
transform faults making up the ocean floor along the Gulf of Mexico
moves one side of those faults with respect to the other. This
strain from this motion can be transferred northward into the
transform faults of Southern California, resulting in increased
seismicity in that area.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Pattern I've seen... - Canie  19:52:14 - 5/6/2001  (7426)  (1)
        ● Re: Pattern I've seen... - Lowell  23:00:23 - 5/7/2001  (7456)  (0)