Try to post when I can, LOL, sometimes its gets busy but always have a second to lurk! :))

Hmmm, I don't have solid data to back up my thesis on 4s, just perception. However I do know that Socal on average is supposed to have like 2 5.0-6.0 mag quakes a year. We had some in 2005, one in Anza and Big Bear and that is it. So on that front its been quiet. Moving on to the 4s, it seems like there is about one or 2 a year in Socal last 5....there should be more than that.

Moving to the 6 range, that one is easier. I looked up the SCEC database and saw that indeed, since 1850 socal has had at LEAST one 6+ quake a decade, often multiple! Its 2008, Hector Mine (which finished out a very active 1990s_ was our last big shaker. If we make it through the next 6 months and all of 2009, we have record for first full decade since quakes have been documented with no 6 in greater Socal.

Now that you mention Roger's name...it would be interesting to see if we could run all the 4s by decade to see where we stand-minus aftershocks (the 90s would have a huge above average)...