Yo, Cathryn! Check out the USGS "24 Hour Aftershock Forecast Map" at http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/step/ It gives the current 24-hour probability of quaking exceeding MMI VI anywhere in the state. In particular, read the "How Can I Use This" link at left side of map. If you click and zoom in, the area of the recent border quakes appears to have a probability of a little better than 1:1000 chance of a quake producing that amount of shaking within a 24-hour period.

Not exactly what you were looking for, but it's probably the best official, informed estimate available. MMI can be reached with a fairly moderate quake, so the chances of a particularly large one don't seem to be all that great (officially).

Mike W.

• 24 Hour Aftershock Forecast Map