I checked Kerry Sieh's web page and see nothing about the statements quoted below and in the link. This was an AP story in our local newspaper today. It is unclear what Sieh is referring to. It sounds like a misquote or at least the way the article was constructed is misleading. To me, if Sieh is really expecting a larger quake in the next days or decades, he must expect it south of 5 deg S. But, according to the discussion John V and I have been having below, perhaps John thinks it possible that the part north of the equator could rupture again? Note: John did not say this: I am speculating and am curious whether John believes this is at all likely or even possible or not.

"Powerful earthquakes struck Indonesia for a third day, terrorising thousands of people who refused to return to coastal homes in fear of falling debris.

Seismologists warned the worst may be yet to come.

Experts have been predicting a repeat of the monster temblor that triggered the 2004 Asian tsunami, killing more than 230,000 people in a dozen nations.

American Kerry Sieh, who has spent decades studying the fault along Sumatra island, said the new jolts could be leading up to the big one.

"No one can say whether it will be in 30 seconds or 30 years but my intuition tells me it will be sooner rather than later," he said."
"

Chris

• Kerry Sieh Sumatra