John;

Of course. That's what we would expect.

Now the expected values were calculated by Chris' suggestion, using the calculated probability on the total number of quakes and deducting the result from the total number each cycle.

But to me, that seems like sampling without replacement and I don't see the logic in it. We don't have a known number of quakes which declines with each pass, we only know that each day has a certain chance of having a quake.

Roger