No one can evaluate the predictions since no one can be following the data all the time that they use to call eq's. Most do the best they can with tools they have and time they have.

Only those with a few millions can even start to be evaluated,and the usgs just lost yesterday,38million in a big cut.(true,big cut for them as passing on the budget bill,but I guess no one watches congress and the sen.)

Thus,someone like Roger who is tring to make sense out of the mess,needs to add factor while working with logic. He fails to do this much of the time,using perimiters ment for true clinical science.

That is a longway down the road. Finding time ,let alone funds or software development is still out there.

We have to continue however the best we can with the time,tools and online data that we have.

Frank C. has gotten something off the ground but he has worked and focused hard on just that and he may be a help to you as you get kicked by unlogical logics. Applied statistics can only work in applied science.

I do not see how this can be done,generally in this site or any like it.

R. has not looked at other factors either,and does not involve himself in prediction or geology himself.

Hope Roger can mediate a bit more with his peramiters taking into account that prediction is not at all a pure science,much like the new genetics are not.

One should not club others over the head with failture when in the mists of learning. Maybe dear Roger can unglue himself and use his statistics on the amputures,orbits,etc of incoming asteriods. That would be much more concreat and helpfull for us all.

D.,take good care,Dona