Hi All,

California as a whole has done very well in how we have handled extensive damage in large historical events. With the 1906 earthquake there was considerably more damage bay area wide and of course the fire in San Francisco only added more chaos.

Though Loma Prieta was costly, in the big picture, since it was so far away from the big cities, it didn't really show us what's possible in a mega quake. Northridge I think faired out worse and gave us a truer picture of what lies ahead. The number of single family structures damaged I think on whole for a modern day earthquake gave us an idea about how extensive and widespread damage from an earthquake can be.

But the Hayward Fault I think if and when it goes is going to be a considerable disaster compared to the others. If it occurs between Richmond and San Leandro the damage to every structure is going to be enormous. The worst news is that all of the hospitals in the region were built on the fault. Freeway over-passes are in great number as well as older non-retrofitted housing. Many workplace buildings are of unreinforced masonry. During the Loma Prieta quake, people in Berkeley reported seeing brick walls open enough to see daylight through them and then watched amazingly as they came back together. This is a place where injury and a large death toll will possibly meet the estimated projections.

So far, so good. I doubt there will ever be enough money to retro fit what needs supporting before this disaster in the making arrives. On the other hand, those who are part of the planning programs throughout the bay area are totally ready. I hope someone wise enough will put a little low key bug in their ears if things look as though they may turn sour.

As far as I can make an observational survey of what is known today, I doubt we have another five years to get ready, but am ever hopeful we have more.

Petra