Cathryn here. Late entering this discussion, but yes, Dennis, I agree when you say,
"In an effort to ward off that claim, there seems to be a reluctance to go all the way with earthquake
forecasting. I find it rather strange that they have made much progress in the ability to forecast hurricanes,
tornados, extreme storms etc. I can theorize why they may not want to forecast earthquakes, but even that
doesn’t make much sense."

***

Cathryn here: I think lead time is the defining factor. With other natural disasters there are often days'
warning. EQ's strike when and where they darn well feel like it.

Dennis: :In the past I have accurately forecasted 7 quakes
:for the Hollister/SJB area and one for Parkfield
:by using the data. I asked the question about how
:many site like those at SJB would they need to
:accurately cover the faults. I was told about
:2000 such sites would be needed, but the cost
:would most likely bankrupt California so it’s not
:likely that this would ever be done especially
:when there is no guarantee that they will be able
:to forecast a major quake.

Cathryn again: And Hollister and SJB are about the least likely place along the SAF to have a 7+ EQ because
of the constant creep (as I understand it).

Dennis: Sure, if everything was done all at one time,
California may go bankrupt. Seems that a little
here and a little there from time to time wouldn't
be that big a deal. After a few years of doing
this it would have all been done.

Cathryn: Southern California really needs more monitoring in place. There's a dearth of instrumentation ala
Parkfield. Who made the splendid idea to spend all this money on equipment out in the boondocks (however
lovely they may be) as opposed to the LA basin and points south?

Dennis: Past hurricane forecasts have been wrong in the
past with many a person extremely unhappy about
it. And there has been a lot of lost business
because of it. They're experienced with this
kind of thing.

Perhaps they need to work on the warning, watch, advisory system already in place for tornadoes. Degrees of
seriousness allow the public to decide how much preparation they feel comfortable with.

Just a thought. Or several.

Cathryn