Re: Evaulating Earthquake Forecasts
Posted by Don in Hollister on April 18, 2001 at 14:48:06:

Hi Roger. At the end of the year I count the number of forecast that have the highest number of A’s then B’s and so on. Those that have all A’s met all of the criteria forecasted for that quake. That would be where the magnitude, location and time were correct. 2 A’s and a B is very good. 2A’s and a C is good. 2A’s and a D is fair. All B’s is good. 2 B’s and a C is fair. 2 C’s and D is bad. There is a special name for 3 D’s. It’s “you’re not even close.” Take Care…Don in creepy town.