Hi All. Suggested Criteria for Evaluating Earthquake Prediction Methods. Take Care…Don in creepy town.

Excerpted from Jackson, David D., Varotsos, P., Lazaridou, M., Hadjicontis, V., Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method; discussion and reply, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 23 , pp. 1363-1370, 1996.

1. A quantitative description of the observations that trigger the prediction---sufficiently detailed and precise that other scientists would come to the same conclusions. (REPRODUCIBILITY)

2. A quantitative description of the predicted earthquake, including time, hypocenter, and magnitude ranges. Must be specific enough that hindsight won't allow reinterpretation of whether or not an earthquake fits the description. (PRECISION)

3. Documented evidence of all previous predictions (including false alarms) using the method.

4. List of successful predictions.

5. List of unpredicted earthquakes.

• Evaluating Earthquake Prediction