Hi everybody,

although some big seismologists around the world say that earthquakes can not be predicted, I don't agree with them. I am working for 15 years in the field of induced seismicity that is in principle the same as "big seismology", but our measurements are in fully controlled conditions. During my practice I saw in the potassium mines the nucleation phase which was ended by main shock. Such a phase was observed in laboratory on the rock samples and is no power to stop the seismicity during this phase. The first problem is with the sensitivity of apparatus, because during this nucleation phase we can observe only small events - 6 and more order smaller then the main shock. The second problem is the heterogenity of rock mass which leads to superposition of different seismicity from different sources. Some of them are in the critical state during its nucleation phase, some are in common state.
Pavel Kalenda