Hi Michael. Like I said. Let's just call in a hunch.

The reason I use a very tight format is that in order for any governing body to except a quake forecast it has to be accurate in time, location and magnitude. I know in Japan they are trying for a two day forecast before the Tokai quake. They know that if it strikes under the ocean they have only minutes to evacuate the areas along the beachfront. That of course is not possible.

In many ways the tsunami could be more devastating then the quake itself.

Six individuals have been charged with the task of forecasting this quake. They are known as the "Wise Six." They meet once a month with the press so as to release any information they may have. To date they haven't given any indication as to when this quake may occur. It is long overdue according to the history for the area. As of right now there doesn' appear to be any indication that a major quake is imminent.
There are some that believe that the quake will not occur in the Tokai district, but may occur in the Kanto Plains area. This is the area of the Sept. 1, 1923 quake that killed 130,000 people. This quake had been predicted about 10 years prior to the day it occurred. The date and time were not predicted. Only the area of where the quake would occur was given. There seems to be some indication that this is the area to watch. At present I don't know what those indications are. I have a feeling though that part of this indication may have to do with the 4,300 that occurred at Miyake-jima Island on June 26-27, 2000. The strongest quake (4.7Mj) occurred on June 27, 2000. Over a period of time the quakes appeared to moving towards the Izu Peninsula which is associated with the Kanto Plains area. However the quakes did stop short before reaching the Izu Peninsula.

All of the inquires that I have made have gone unanswered. It may be that I'm not asking the right people.

Sorry about the long answer which did not answer your question. Take Care…Don in creepy town.