There has not been any event since the M5.9 in India reported by the USGS. In a probability that would seem different to the calculation you are using, the probability that there was a follow up event or two or three is very high. When I do a wider search of the USGS data, it seems that in the past, when there has been an event that large, there has always been another the next day or two. In an attempt to verify what I am thinking, I have looked for some local India reporting. I have found what might be an earthquakes reporting system in India, but so far have not been able to get it to load.

The point would be that even though you want to calculate the probability by the overall USGS data set/prediction time frame or something like that, after an M5.9, probably anywhere, not just in India, there is very likely to be a smaller event the next couple of days. It is very, very probable. Looking at similar events, it is likely to be within a degree lat/long of the original event. So, one could narrow down the time frame to let's say 48 hours, the lat/long to 1 degree or less and probably make a pretty good guess at the magnitude from the historical data. Wouldn't that make for a low probability using your formula? These could be seen as signifcant predictions, even though they are not. That is of course if the USGS cares to report them.

The current activity in the Azores is interesting. It makes it look like the USGS does report all events. It makes me wonder. If/when I can find confirmation of an event nearby the India M5.9, I'll post it here. The USGS is by far the most complete reporting of events, but there seems to be something strange about it. Thinking back to a response they sent me by email, they do not claim accuracy under M5.5 worldwide. Then why all the reporting on the Azores activity?