John..interesting..post stuff like this more often when you have time. But...do you have a comment on this? Like, have the Japanese had any success? Or anyone else? I am actually one of the people who think that occassional short-term prediction might be possible (for certain faults), but that it will take technology..possibly intense data gathering and analysis. I heard Susana Custodio's Parkfield talk (twice) and it is clear that Parkfield is a highly unusual part of a fault (edge of creep, very shallow) and so lack of precursor may not mean much..
Chris