OK, I read the whole thread (up to now). I agree with Roger...it has to be a prediction record,not a single prediction. Shan had a rather close prediction of the March 8.7 Sumatra quake...he got the time window and magnitude (on rather small windows), and missed the location by choosing too far SE along the subduction zone. I tended to let a couple degrees slide because of the size of the quake: if he knew more about subductions zones and stress buildup he might have gotten the location correct. He then followed over the next few months or year with about 5 incorrect predictions of great earthquakes.
Hey, I won Petra's contest for the next M7 in the world...it occured 4 hours after I made the post....but I just chose an area that was having a swarm of 6s. My other few predictions have been wrong...I have no real basis to make predictions, and it is a bad idea that I make any.
Chris