Re: good article this year on 1975
Posted by Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande on November 13, 2006 at 10:31:21:

Good summary, John. I posted a rather lengthy opinion piece, with my summary of the BSSA article, here at Earthwaves and on sci.geo.earthquakes back in June of this year. Link below. One important conclusion the authors reached was: " . . . the foreshock sequence was the most important evidence used in the prediction." Also: "It was the foreshocks alone that triggered the final decisions of warning and evacuation."

My take on the article was that the authors were, politely (considering their international emminence and origin), showing how, in the light of new information, the supposed prediction success is much less impressive than prediction proponents like to believe.

On the subject of animal anomalies, they have this to say:
"There were nearly 100 snake sightings within one month prior to the earthquake . . . Although they must represent a tiny fractiton of the total snake population . . such suicidal behavior is extremely difficult to explain. What the snakes and other animals sensed is not known. It could be as simple as vibrations caused by earthquake tremors that were not detected by the then very sparse seismic network." [That doesn't seem so "extremely difficult"!-mw]
AND:
"Before the Haicheng earthquake, there were a few sightings of groups of disoriented mice unresponsive to people and cats around them. They represent a tiny fraction of the total mouse population in that area, and their behavior must have some site-specific reason. One possibility is that their dens were invaded by some toxic gas emitted from the ground, perhaps due to fracturing before the large earthquake."

Michael F. Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA



Follow Ups:
     ● their summary, not mine - John Vidale  19:16:33 - 11/13/2006  (60172)  (0)