an example of why
Posted by martin@n.i.c.e. on March 02, 2001 at 06:22:38:

Vancouver Island post 25km off.
Moluccus Indo 1 wk off 7m event
East Honshu active correct time, mag 5.9 but North of post 150km.
Tokop Nevada also active just past expiry
Ridgecrest hit within kilometers
others...

If I wanted only to show correct predictions, then I wouldn't post such tight parameters. My work researching depends on refining the accuracy of my posts so that the accuracy exceeds that of other posters and establishes credibility.
There are two ways to accomplish this objective with two different results-
1 Make loose posts that will be fulfilled for sure, stun the viewers with tons of correct postings and get famous then big earthquake hits and you are too general to be of any evacuative use.
2 Make tight calls on longitude latitude, time Range and magnitude. Chances are with tight posts one of the criteria will fail at least. (Not by much when the poster has the experience to draw from what was learned in hundreds of past posts.) Onlookers are less apt to hoot and holler from the stands at this stage of the game. The post may have missed by .3 magnitude but the forecaster smiles and knows that the all important location was exact. Next time the location was off by 25 miles but the magnitude was right on. Next time the forecaster nails ALL criteria for that earthquake, tightly!
Double the parameters, and most of THIS forecasters posts would be hits. I have the choice to double the magnitude range, expand location parameters by 50% and increase the alotted time on any posts before I type them into history. To do so would be a big step backwards.
Like an athlete, the investigative researcher uses trial and error to find out the parameters of their own skills. In interpreting data and making forecasts I know what I am capable of doing and push the envelope as I have often been urged to do. I could post "Ring of Fire for a 7 and get the hit and it's cheered by the crowds of onlookers in the stands. I post for Moluccus Indonesia to 7+and miss the 7m by one week.
If you lived in Moluccus, which post would concern you? The post for 30 000 miles of coastline that got a hit on a month window instead of two weeks brings cheers from onlookers. The guy in Moluccus had told his family which hill to run up if there was a tsunami...But the predictor didn't get a hit...


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: other examples - martin@n.i.c.e.  06:49:45 - 3/2/2001  (5643)  (0)