Re: Testing confidence field
Posted by Don in Hollister on February 25, 2001 at 11:40:06:

Hi All. I don't know if this is a solution or not, but I know in Japan the earthquake prediction committee is trying for a two day warning for the Tokai district quake. They are using every scientific method they can think of plus anything else that might happen to come along.

They feel that the two-day window will give them sufficient amount of time to move all of their emergency equipment such as fire trucks, ambulances etc. into a safe area.

They don't appear to be too concerned as to the location of the epicenter. It is felt that a 100Km range will cover it. Their biggest concerned is the possibility of a tsunami so they know they will have to evacuate the beach area as there won't be enough time to do that after the quake.

I have found that with the SJB data there is about a 6 to 18 hour window after the strain drops for the earthquake to occur. I have been correct 7 times using the SJB data. However there have been some good shakes that never showed up on the data. These quakes were on faults not covered by the data. The last 4.1Ml we had never showed on the data. I'm almost sure that it was on the San Andreas Fault south of SJB but was to far away to influence the data. Take Care…Don in creepy town.