Re: Tighter
Posted by Dennis Gentry of Santa Clarita on February 02, 2001 at 13:41:20:

Don had written about his ideas on prediction before that basically had said the same thing. He wants predictions to be pretty much exact on location. I don't agree with this.

As far as whether a statement is a prediction or a comment, I'm in agreement with you. Myself, I take prediction rather seriously and it really bothers me to see a sensationlist kind of tone used in a prediction.

The below prediction did occur but well beyond the window and was post number 3255.

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Forecast 6-7.9 E.Q. for Anchorage-Kodiak 30dys<
Posted by martin@n.i.c.e. on July 12, 2000 at 13:37:06:

Last one just a foreshock...mb. Sorry for being the bearer of bad news AKers... TAKE PRECAUTIONS, amd if you don't believe me, ask for references...
Most likely will co-incide with the full moon...mb.
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This was made back in July with the quake finally occurring the following January. Maybe I'm overreacting, but the way I see it, we need to be post our predictions in such a way that will allow people to make their own informed decision on how they will react to a possible situation. In the case above, the prediction did not occur in the window as predicted. What would have happened if the above prediction had been more widely dissiminated that millions of people took action on and then nothing happened (as it did - nothing happened)?

I guess you can see what I'm getting at.

Dennis


Follow Ups:
     ● Tightest - Michael  14:01:06 - 2/2/2001  (4922)  (0)