Hi All. For more then six months there has been acceleration in creep for the Bay Area. Some of it has been right lateral, and some has been reverse. I don’t have any idea as to how this may occur.

About 2 weeks ago it started slowing down. The problem I’m having with this is that I don’t know if the creep is returning to normal, or if strain is starting to build. At present there is no indication of strain on either the San Andreas, or the Hayward fault. Of course there is always the chance that the strain build up could be on another fault and if that were the case I don’t know if strain build up would be seen.
I recently obtained considerable amount of data from USGS on the probabilities of a major quake in the Bay Area. There are 3 faults that have the best chance of a major quake. They are the San Andreas, Rodgers Creek and the Hayward. For the San Andreas it’s the portion of the fault north of the epicenter of the Loma Prieta quake. For the Rodgers Creek it is the portion of the fault south of Rohnert Park. For the Hayward it is the portion of the fault south of Fremont. Of the 3 the Rodgers Creek fault is felt to be the most likely fault for a major quake as there is no indication of creep for the portion of the fault south of Rohnert Park. It is felt that the 6.5M 1898 Mare Island quake may have been caused by the Rodgers Creek fault. A geologist said that they haven’t found any evidence that it did. He also said that only means that they haven’t looked in the right place yet. There is a current on going study being made by the University Of Berkeley. I have no idea as to when that will be completed, or if the findings will be released.
I know when Petra took me to her study area the first time it was quite apparent to me that the area has been subjected to a lot of stress and movement in the past. Of course a portion of that could be caused by volcanic activity for which there is a lot of evidence to support that. You can’t walk anywhere without stepping on some basalt.
I have learned a lot from this little lady with the blonde hair and have come to respect her opinions which by the way she doesn’t hesitate one bit in letting me have it with both barrels. I may call her a “knuckle head” but that isn’t because she is ignorant or anything like that. She is very smart and is a very fast learner and has a very good knowledge base of geology and earthquakes. I have crossed swords with her a couple of times and have lost in some of the confrontations. She may be a blonde, but a dumb one she isn’t. Take Care…Don in creepy town.