Martin:

I disagree.

Your window started with your post at 6:20 PM on 12/31/00. That translates to 2:20 AM on 1/1/01 UTC. So, your window ran 10 days, from 2:20AM 1/1/01 to 2:19AM 1/10/01 UTC. The 5.8 was at 4:06AM 1/11/01, which is about 26 hours late. Very close indeed, but not in your 10 day window. I'd call it a near miss, but not a hit. Your 3.6 on the other was indeed a hit! Regardless, your prediction was impressive!

I think I got my math and time zones correct...

Michael