Hi Dennis, Todd. I use Alan’s program quite often and I can’t find a pattern either. The problem with the program today is that is hasn’t been in use long enough. Given a hundred years or more of use one might be able to see a pattern. Even then I’m not sure that a pattern can be seen for all areas that are earthquake prone.

Every time there is a large quake the stress is either transferred, reduced or increases at some other location. This could bring on the next large quake much sooner, or delay it for another 100 years, or longer.

Before the 1906 earthquake there were a number of earthquakes over 5.0M in the Bay Area. The San Joaguin Valley is on the list as I feel these quakes were associated with the Great Valley fault, which is a fault that has been overlooked for a long time. To some extent we are seeing this again. Take Care…Don in creepy town.

1808 6 24 0 0 37 48.00 122 30.00 6.0 San Francisco region
1836 6 10 1530 37 48.00 122 12.00 6.75 Hayward Valley
1838 6 0 0 0 37 36.00 122 24.00 7.0 San Francisco Peninsula
1856 2 15 1325 37 30.00 122 18.00 5.5 San Francisco Peninsula
1858 11 26 835 37 30.00 121 54.00 6.25 San Jose region
1861 7 4 011 37 48.00 122 0. 5.75 San Ramon Valley
1864 2 26 1347 37 6.00 121 42.00 6.0 S. Santa Cruz Mountains
1864 3 5 1649 37 42.00 122 0. 5.75 E. of San Francisco Bay

1865 10 8 2046 37 0.00 122 00.00 6.5 S. Santa Cruz Mountains
1866 7 15 0630 37 30.00 121 18.00 6.0 W. San Joaquin Valley
1868 10 21 1553 37 42.00 122 6.00 7.0 Hayward fault
1870 2 17 2012 37 12.00 122 6.00 6.0 Los Gatos

1882 3 6 2145 36 54. 121 12. 5.75 Hollister
1884 3 26 40 37 6. 122 12. 6.0 Santa Cruz Mountains
1885 4 12 4 5 36 24.00 121 0. 6.25 S. Diablo Range
1889 5 19 1110 38 0. 121 54.00 6.25 Antioch
1890 4 24 1136 36 54.00 121 36.00 6.25 Pajaro Gap
1892 4 19 1050 38 24.00 122 0. 6.5 Vacaville
1892 4 21 1743 38 30.00 121 54.00 6.25 Winters
1892 11 13 1245 36 48.00 121 30.00 5.75 Hollister
1897 6 20 2014 37 0. 121 30.00 6.25 Gilroy
1898 3 31 743 38 12.00 122 24.00 6.5 Mare Island
1899 7 6 2010 37 12. 121 30. 5.75 Morgan Hill
1903 6 11 1312 37 24.00 121 54.00 5.5 San Jose
1903 8 3 649 37 18.00 121 48.00 5.5 San Jose
1906 4 18 1312 37 42.00 122 30.00 8.25 Great 1906 earthquake