Martin:

I wasn't aware of your "M.O.", sorry. I think it's safe to assume that there also might be others who are in the same boat so I would suggest you clearly state your forcast in no uncertain terms, then there's nothing to debate, right?

As far as the 200 miles, that all depends on what you call the "center" of the peninsula. Your center and my center are probably not the same place, so once again, clearly stating your forcast is critical to your credibility.

All that said, I find this rather vague "forcast" quite interesting. You obviously we're on the right track, and with a clearer forcast (where, how far, when, how big) I would have given you a hit.

Keep up the effort!