Quote:

"In the developed world (infrastructure-wise), deterministic prediction (read: short-term warnings of damaging quakes) has little utility. A prediction scheme would have to have nearly a zero false-alarm rate for it to be useful. Earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do. No major, modern urban area is going to be evacuated based on any prediction that does not have an exceptionally high likelihood of being accurate. Meanwhile, the much-maligned scientific "establishment" has had enormous success already in saving many thousands of lives - in the developed world. Scientists, engineers, and building code authors have combined their expertise with probabilistic forecasts (essential for determination of economic and social value), in order to assure that our buildings don't kill us. The remarkably low death toll in U.S. earthquakes since early in the twentieth century substantiates that highly rational and admirable result."

Wow! You sound like me . . . welcome to the choir!

=8-)