I sat at a breakfast table at the Sept 2006 SCEC meeting where someone (I forget his name) was comparing prediction of fires to that of earthquakes. I think he has an abstract or paper somewhere...I could through the abstract volume. I think it bears on how large an earthquake you can have...let's use NY City for an example, because that is what started the post. Because there is a M5 earthquake near NY City every 100 years, does that mean that there will be a M7 every 10,000 years? There is some study of distribution of forest fire size...but there is an upper limit because fire unlikely to be larger than the forest. Earthquakes not likely to be larger than extent of fault system (can jump to nearby faults, but I'm calling that a fault system). Speaking of large fires....I'm waiting for the AGU abstracts to be on-line October 16 to see what Jim Kennett has put into his abstract on the impact they propose at 13,000 BP.

I'm trying to do a lot of science posts so I can get away with a political post or two soon. I'm considering my global warming posts to be science posts. But...I may not vote...I have a residence problem until are NY house closes: I need to stay a NY resident. Hillary C. does not need my help there...Claire McCaskill (sp?) needs it here.
Chris