Re: Western Ring of Fire-?- Chaos, or Earth Mechanics?
Posted by Skywise on August 13, 2006 at 23:25:32:

Just because something is chaotic does not necessarily mean it is random. It just means it is indeterminant without full knowledge of the state of the system and the rules which govern it. Personally, I feel quakes ARE predictible, but we simply don't know all the rules of the system and we certainly don't have anywhere near enough knowledge of the state of the system.

Just in case that confuses anyone, "rules of the system" means something like the math forumlae used to run a simulation. The "state of the system" is knowing what the initial conditions of all the variables of the simulation are before you run it.

For example, a bouncing ball. If you know the rules wheich govern how the ball bounces and you know the initial state, that is, it's initial location and velocity and direction of movement, you can then predict where the ball will likely end up. If you don't know where the ball starts, how can you possibly predict where it will end up?

As for the western part of the RoF, it is indeed an extremely active area of the planet, perhaps the most active. There are many subduction zones and triple junctions. There are several microplates that are getting crunched between two main plates. Considering this, it's no surprise that there is a lot of activity in that region of the world. It's like saying there's a lot of water in the Pacific Ocean. Well, yeah, it's bigger than all the others.

Just by gut feel, I don't think the current activity is anything but one of those times when there just happens to be a few more quakes than average. There are other times when it's less than average.

Brian