Hi All. Does history repeat itself? It seems that it does. After 1906 the number of moderate to large quakes that had been rocking the region during the period from 1808 to 1906 have all but disappeared, which has lulled many people today into believing that big quakes in the Bay Area are the exception and not the rule. However, the research of Schwartz's team suggests otherwise. A pattern of quakes nearly identical to that, which occurred in the last century, is beginning to reemerge.

1808 6 24 0 0 37 48.00 122 30.00 6.0 San Francisco region
1836 6 10 1530 37 48.00 122 12.00 6.75 Hayward Valley
1838 6 0 0 0 37 36.00 122 24.00 7.0 San Francisco Peninsula
1856 2 15 1325 37 30.00 122 18.00 5.5 San Francisco Peninsula
1858 11 26 835 37 30.00 121 54.00 6.25 San Jose region
1861 7 4 011 37 48.00 122 0. 5.75 San Ramon Valley
1864 2 26 1347 37 6.00 121 42.00 6.0 S. Santa Cruz Mountains
1864 3 5 1649 37 42.00 122 0. 5.75 E. of San Francisco Bay
1865 10 8 2046 37 0.00 122 00.00 6.5 S. Santa Cruz Mountains
1866 7 15 0630 37 30.00 121 18.00 6.0 W. San Joaquin Valley
1868 10 21 1553 37 42.00 122 6.00 7.0 Hayward fault
1870 2 17 2012 37 12.00 122 6.00 6.0 Los Gatos
1871 3 2 21 5 40 24.00 124 12.00 6.0 Cape Mendocino
1873 11 23 5 0 42 0. 124 0. 6.75 Crescent City
1878 5 9 425 40 6.00 124 0. 6.0 Punta Gorda region
1881 4 10 10 0 37 24.00 121 24.00 6.0 W. San Joaquin Valley
1882 3 6 2145 36 54. 121 12. 5.75 Hollister
1884 3 26 40 37 6. 122 12. 6.0 Santa Cruz Mountains
1889 5 19 1110 38 0. 121 54.00 6.25 Antioch
1890 4 24 1136 36 54.00 121 36.00 6.25 Pajaro Gap
1890 7 26 940 40 30.00 124 12.00 6.25 Cape Mendocino
1892 4 19 1050 38 24.00 122 0. 6.5 Vacaville
1892 4 21 1743 38 30.00 121 54.00 6.25 Winters
1892 11 13 1245 36 48.00 121 30.00 5.75 Hollister
1894 9 30 1736 40 18. 123 42. 6.0 Cape Mendocino region
1897 6 20 2014 37 0. 121 30.00 6.25 Gilroy
1898 3 31 743 38 12.00 122 24.00 6.5 Mare Island
1898 4 15 7 7 39 12.00 123 48.00 6.5 Mendocino
1899 4 16 1340 41 0. 126 0. 7.0 W. of Eureka
1899 7 6 2010 37 12. 121 30. 5.75 Morgan Hill
1903 6 11 1312 37 24.00 121 54.00 5.5 San Jose
1903 8 3 649 37 18.00 121 48.00 5.5 San Jose
1906 4 18 1312 37 42.00 122 30.00 8.25 Great 1906 earthquake

In 1954 there was a 5.5 quake on the Concord fault, which caused damage. Then in 1979, a 6.0 quake on the Calaveras fault south of San Jose was followed in 1980 by a 6.0 on the Greenville fault near Livermore. The Calaveras fault near Morgan Hill rocked again with a 6.3 temblor in 1984, and of course, there was the 6.9 Loma Prieta quake, which hit the San Andreas in 1989.
"The point of looking for patterns is that there is a hole in the twentieth century," Schwartz explains. "The 1906 quake was a blessing in that it let us go through most of this century and develop an infrastructure without repeated quake damage." However, Schwartz and other geologists theorize that the 1906 quake was so huge that it relieved a great load of stress on this section of the San Andreas--but that relief is starting to wear off.

For those who look for patterns (such as myself) it indeed appears that history is about to repeat itself. The question is where and when. The one area that stands out is the Rodgers Creek Fault. My reasoning for this is the lack of any activity during the 1800s.

The recent events associated with the Rodgers Creek Fault indicate to me that there is a considerable amount of stress along that fault. Using Petras thoughts and feelings the most likely area is the section of the fault south of Petaluma to San Pablo Bay. Over the past two years of working with the boss lady I have found that she is usually right. Of course I won’t tell her that as she would only make me work harder. Take Care…Don in creepy town.