Shan's 2006 predictions
Posted by Roger Hunter on July 19, 2006 at 10:32:08:

Hi all;

Since there's some differences of opinion about my look at Shan's 2006
predictions, here they are. In each case, fitting quakes are listed after the relevant prediction. I only count hit or miss for the prediction. The number of hits doesn't matter.


2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 -7.03 125.44 5.0 to 8.9 80.251, 1
2006 7 12 21:52 -7.54 127.94 4.7
2006 7 15 7: 9 -4.45 126.22 5.8
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 -11.40 111.60 5.0 to 8.9 39.408, 0
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 12.50 40.30 5.0 to 8.9 8.618, 0
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 -30.50 179.30 5.0 to 8.9 22.801, 0
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 -6.60 152.20 5.0 to 8.9 96.858, 1
2006 7 10 0:37 -5.62 150.57 4.4
2006 7 10 1:23 -5.74 150.65 4.6
2006 7 10 9:57 -5.52 150.87 4.8
2006 7 11 22:21 -5.56 150.81 4.8
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 46.80 153.50 5.0 to 8.9 76.930, 1
2006 7 9 14:51 47.24 153.96 4.9
2006 7 12 16:17 47.17 154.13 4.8
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 55.73 159.95 5.0 to 8.9 60.772, 0
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 -16.27 -174.47 5.0 to 8.9 94.255, 1
2006 7 11 15:54 -17.66 -174.09 4.6
2006 7 13 5:50 -15.73 -174.24 4.5
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 -19.10 169.70 5.0 to 8.9 86.086, 0
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 30.50 140.10 5.0 to 8.9 88.689, 0
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 -17.60 -179.10 5.0 to 8.9 95.601, 1
2006 7 13 20: 3 -17.73 -178.36 4.5
2006 7 16 14:24 -19.79 -178.47 4.7
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 42.40 141.90 5.0 to 8.9 86.355, 1
2006 7 8 5: 2 41.61 142.05 4.2
2006 7 11 6:46 40.72 142.40 4.6
2006 7 8 4:30 to 2006 7 19 20:30 21.90 95.00 5.0 to 8.9 45.961, 0
2006 7 9 4:30 to 2006 7 20 20:30 51.76 -175.50 5.0 to 8.9 65.081, 0
2006 7 9 4:30 to 2006 7 20 20:30 -16.50 -170.30 5.0 to 8.9 55.655, 0
2006 7 9 4:30 to 2006 7 20 20:30 -3.40 146.89 5.0 to 8.9 90.844, 1
2006 7 12 19: 7 -6.02 148.55 5.7
2006 7 9 4:30 to 2006 7 20 20:30 37.55 96.61 5.0 to 8.9 10.682, 0
2006 7 9 4:30 to 2006 7 20 20:30 25.80 141.80 5.0 to 8.9 68.223, 1
2006 7 13 2:26 25.00 140.83 4.0
2006 7 9 4:30 to 2006 7 20 20:30 -11.00 69.80 5.0 to 8.9 5.835, 1
2006 7 12 14:44 -8.53 67.78 5.7
2006 7 9 4:30 to 2006 7 20 20:30 33.20 58.00 5.0 to 8.9 19.300, 0
2006 7 9 4:30 to 2006 7 20 20:30 -5.10 35.90 5.0 to 8.9 5.476, 0
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 13.70 92.90 5.0 to 6.0 29.174, 0
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 30.60 79.50 5.0 to 6.0 23.339, 0
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 37.20 138.60 5.0 to 6.0 87.343, 0
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 31.30 88.10 5.0 to 6.0 24.147, 0
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 16.90 120.10 5.0 to 6.0 65.530, 0
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 -3.20 131.60 5.0 to 6.0 80.521, 0
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 -6.40 130.30 5.0 to 6.0 93.896, 1
2006 7 12 21:52 -7.54 127.94 4.7
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 2.21 96.74 5.0 to 6.0 57.989, 1
2006 7 11 0:57 .78 97.27 5.3
2006 7 12 23:19 2.39 97.09 4.7
2006 7 13 3: 3 5.13 94.65 4.5
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 3.30 95.78 5.0 to 6.0 52.244, 1
2006 7 11 0:57 .78 97.27 5.3
2006 7 12 23:19 2.39 97.09 4.7
2006 7 13 3: 3 5.13 94.65 4.5
2006 7 15 11:53 3.75 93.56 5.1
2006 7 10 4:30 to 2006 7 21 20:30 27.10 55.90 5.0 to 6.0 46.050, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 -17.10 169.70 6.0 to 8.9 57.540, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 57.50 120.40 6.0 to 8.9 .987, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 -7.30 155.50 6.0 to 8.9 57.720, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 47.40 154.30 5.0 to 8.9 77.020, 1
2006 7 12 16:17 47.17 154.13 4.8
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 -9.80 112.40 5.0 to 8.9 47.576, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 17.16 73.78 5.0 to 8.9 3.232, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 35.73 25.36 5.0 to 8.9 81.329, 1
2006 7 13 15:12 35.71 27.33 4.9
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 -21.50 32.30 5.0 to 8.9 2.065, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 52.50 -169.20 5.0 to 8.9 56.194, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 -29.90 -177.40 5.0 to 8.9 85.637, 1
2006 7 15 8:57 -30.57 -179.56 4.9
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 51.60 -176.10 5.0 to 8.9 67.953, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 30.50 140.10 5.0 to 8.9 88.689, 0
2006 7 12 4:30 to 2006 7 23 20:30 -7.80 127.70 5.0 to 8.9 93.447, 1
2006 7 12 21:52 -7.54 127.94 4.7
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 -5.00 103.20 5.3 to 8.9 70.736, 1
2006 7 17 5:32 -4.91 102.13 5.3
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 33.60 71.80 5.3 to 8.9 74.686, 0
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 24.50 121.90 5.3 to 8.9 75.673, 0
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 14.70 144.30 5.3 to 8.9 73.429, 1
2006 7 13 5:15 13.78 144.66 4.6
2006 7 16 15:18 13.30 144.18 5.2
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 42.40 141.90 5.0 to 6.0 86.355, 0
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 21.90 95.00 5.0 to 6.0 45.961, 0
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 5.60 124.90 5.0 to 6.0 93.178, 0
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 37.30 69.80 5.0 to 6.0 94.524, 0
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 .70 97.30 5.0 to 6.0 55.476, 0
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 -3.20 131.60 5.0 to 6.0 80.521, 0
2006 7 13 4:30 to 2006 7 24 20:30 2.40 97.10 5.0 to 6.0 58.977, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 -9.40 25.90 6.0 to 7.0 .628, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 -30.10 179.70 6.0 to 7.0 3.770, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 52.50 -169.20 6.0 to 7.0 19.210, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 23.70 70.10 5.0 to 6.0 6.373, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 11.60 57.70 5.0 to 6.0 16.966, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 48.00 153.80 5.0 to 6.0 78.456, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 53.90 160.50 5.0 to 6.0 72.083, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 -9.80 112.40 5.0 to 6.0 47.576, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 7.60 91.90 5.0 to 6.0 39.048, 0
2006 7 14 4:30 to 2006 7 25 20:30 41.70 80.60 5.0 to 6.0 27.558, 0
2006 7 16 4:30 to 2006 7 27 20:30 -19.50 -175.80 5.0 to 8.9 98.654, 1
2006 7 16 14:24 -19.79 -178.47 4.7
2006 7 16 4:30 to 2006 7 27 20:30 18.30 168.10 5.0 to 8.9 .180, 0
2006 7 16 4:30 to 2006 7 27 20:30 4.80 96.60 5.0 to 8.9 56.463, 0
2006 7 16 4:30 to 2006 7 27 20:30 -5.50 103.10 5.0 to 8.9 71.634, 1
2006 7 17 5:32 -4.91 102.13 5.3
2006 7 16 4:30 to 2006 7 27 20:30 -4.50 126.20 5.0 to 8.9 80.162, 0

The last two columns are probability and hit/miss flag

The quakes come from a listing of all NEIC quakes, mag 4+ from 1973 to present.

Did I miss any?

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Shan's 2006 predictions - Canie  11:55:47 - 7/20/2006  (39429)  (1)
        ● Re: Shan's 2006 predictions - R.Shanmugasundaram  20:20:58 - 7/20/2006  (39436)  (0)
     ● Re: Shan's 2006 predictions - Cathryn  08:26:09 - 7/20/2006  (39425)  (0)