Re: Congratulations, Jane
Posted by Brad-sd on July 08, 2006 at 23:26:47:

I can't think of any circumstance where someone would be scratching their head saying, "that quake was too strong, therefore it couldn't have been the quake I was looking for".

Also, I have never ever heard anyone claim anything other than hit when a quake exceeds the low end of the predicted mag range, regardless of the maximum range.

But yet, at the same time they predicted a quake within this specific range. Why? Why go out of your way to calculate something (upper limit) that is already percieved as valueless. If the quake struck within the predicted range, you will get the same amount of praise as you would if the quake exceeded the max.

Most people totally ignore the upper limit. The upper limit serves no useful purpose whatsoever. It only complicates things more.

I make a motion that predictions only include a low magnitude. example: "I predict a 5.5+ quake will strike somewhere before next Tuesday."

Earthquake predictions are not yet accurate enough to go into that much detail.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Congratulations, Jane - Cathryn  01:34:38 - 7/9/2006  (39216)  (0)