Re: Possible new sign for impending quake-update
Posted by Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande on May 13, 2006 at 14:11:11:

Fascinating. Wish I could read the full article, too. This certainly seems to have more gravitas than the original article. However, the references to relative humidity increases seem a little "out there." My main problems with the original article were 1) that, even though heat anomalies related to faults are well-known, as is the fact that earthquakes release a great deal of energy as heat while they are occurring, I cannot see any mechanism that would produce large heat flows prior to a quake due to stress, and 2) even if such an increased heat flow did exist, it certainly does not seem credible that it would be of sufficient magnitude to detectably heat such huge volumes of circulating water. This, second, article tends to support the existence of the phenomenon in (1), but does not address (2).

Ultimately, even if such an interesting phenomenon as the heat flow increase is proven to exist, it will probably join the pantheon of other supposed precursory phenomena which A) do exist, but only before some, and not all quakes, and B) occur also without any subsequent quake. Any useful precursor would have to not suffer from B), i.e - to have a near-zero false alarm rate.

Michael Williams in Arroyo Grande, CA