Anza Result - Miss
Posted by Glen on May 05, 2006 at 10:17:50:

Howdy,

The prediction met two of the conditions for success, time and location, but missed on magnitude. A 3.2 ML hit 9.8351 Km from the center point, and the quake occurred within the time window. I use energy release to configure the difference in magnitude. I understand the energy release between each magnitude is roughly 32X. If I divide that by 10, the difference between a 3.5 (predicted)
and a 3.2 would be 9.6X. So the quake that happened was about 1/10 the energy release of that expected. Corrections always appreciated.

What is more interesting than a prediction is the possibility of new fault structures being formed in the region. If these micros are an indication, then it appears that a major step over across the Buck Ridge, the Clark Lake and the
Coyote Creek faults is in formation. Another interesting micro pattern is a parallel grouping of micros between the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults. There is one small fault, the Earthquake Valley fault that strikes northwest also. This intermeadiate grouping of micros typically occurs after swarms in the Anza area. (What I call "jumping" off fault) I'll do some more work on these possibilities.

Comments always welcomed.

Glen



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Anza Result - Miss - chris in suburbia  16:02:23 - 5/5/2006  (36799)  (1)
        ● Re: Anza Result - Miss - Glen  18:17:12 - 5/5/2006  (36801)  (1)
           ● Re: Anza Result - Miss - Roger Hunter  18:35:52 - 5/5/2006  (36802)  (1)
              ● Re: Anza Result - Miss - Glen  19:15:31 - 5/5/2006  (36803)  (1)
                 ● Glen, you mentioned global statistics - Roger Hunter  12:36:46 - 5/6/2006  (36819)  (1)
                    ● OK, that's fine. Another Q - Glen  15:10:27 - 5/6/2006  (36820)  (1)
                       ● Re: OK, that's fine. Another Q - Roger Hunter  15:33:17 - 5/6/2006  (36821)  (1)
                          ● Re: OK, that's fine. Another Q - Glen  17:03:46 - 5/6/2006  (36824)  (1)
                             ● Re: OK, that's fine. Another Q - Roger Hunter  17:54:22 - 5/6/2006  (36825)  (0)