Hi All,

Here's yet another article of late which will no doubt undermine reasons for the public to prepare for an earthquake. There are two gross errors in this report. First, the SAF has had two 8.0 earthquakes near SF that were 100 years apart and second, how could there be fewer deaths today when one considers Santa Rosa was just a burg when the 1906 earthquake occured. I've already written to the reporter and have asked a geologist to do the same. If nothing else, they should write a counter article so people don't get the wrong impression.

And regarding the other article where they cited a government study. So far they can't produce a copy of it or cite any information as to where it came from. Big surprise huh?

Quake safety is going to ....... in handbasket........ Petra

**********************************************************************

Study gives SR better chance than rest of Bay Area
Similar San Andreas temblor would likely result in fewer deaths, less damage than 1906
By BOB NORBERG
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT

SAN FRANCISCO - Santa Rosa and Sonoma County would probably fare better today than they did in 1906 if an earthquake of similar size struck on the San Andreas Fault , seismology experts said Monday.

In a report marking the centennial of the 1906 quake, which devastated Santa Rosa, the experts said Sonoma is the only Bay Area county in which fewer people would be killed, injured or displaced by a major quake, despite a population that is 65 times larger.

"In general, the whole region, looking forward, is worse, but Sonoma County reverses the trend," said Charles Kircher, the principal author of a report called "When the Big One Strikes Again."

Kircher, a Palo Alto engineer, outlined the findings of a computer simulation of a 1906-type temblor at a news conference Monday at the start of the annual conference of the American Seismology Association.

The results would be catastrophic.

According to the report, a daytime quake of 7.9 magnitude on the San Andreas Fault would result in up to 3,400 deaths, $150 billion in losses, damage to 10,000 commercial buildings and the displacement of 250,000 households.

Sonoma County, where the greatest threat is believed to be the Rodgers Creek Fault, could escape the worst devastation, though damage could hit $2.7billion.

The primary difference, the experts said, is likely to be the epicenter of the next Big One.

For Sonoma County, the epicenter of the 1906 quake was in the worst possible place, two miles off San Francisco and six miles deep, rupturing northward at 8,000 mph. It funneled the shaking directly east to Santa Rosa, Kircher said.

"If you are rolling the dice again, you might hit a seven, but you wouldn't hit a snake eyes," he said. "Odds are that it won't be as bad next time. It will be bad, but the odds are it won't shake as strongly as 1906."

Sonoma County also doesn't have as many buildings that are as vulnerable as other Bay Area commu nities', largely because of retrofitting done after the 1969 quakes and also because most of the growth occurred after 1970, when building codes were stricter, said Laurie Johnson, an urban planner with the Earthquake Research Institute.

"Santa Rosa and Sonoma County have been proactive in adopting safety elements, fault studies, a lot of investigation, a lot of landslide abatement," Johnson said.

How soon a 1906-magnitude quake will hit, however, is unk nown. They usually occur every 250 to 300 years, said Mary Lou Zoback, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.

"There will be a major damaging earthquake in the Bay Area, that is inevitable," she said.

"A repeat of the 1906 quake may not be likely, but there will be a damaging earthquake during my lifetime."

Despite retrofitting and the likelihood of a different epicenter, a quake along the San Andreas Fault similar to the one that struck in 1906 could kill 39 people in Sonoma County, compared to 107 in 1906, and displace 678 people, compared to 1,610 in 1906.

It also would be expected to damage 1,631 residential and 1,588 commercial buildings, according to the report.

Kircher said that in general, 50 percent of all deaths regionwide would occur in buildings that are unreinforced masonry, built over garages or made of concrete with substandard steel reinforcement, which account for only 5 percent of all buildings in the Bay Area.

New codes for buildings, in contrast, result in structures that are safe for people, but could be expected to suffer major damage and may not be immediately inhabitable.

Kircher said that if the quake happened today, chances are the Golden Gate Bridge would be impassable for a brief period.

But until its retrofit is completed, the Bay Bridge would be knocked out.

Damage to other infrastructure was not assessed, but Kircher said many roads would be damaged.