Canie e-mailed me her prediction and asked me to evaluate it based on past catalogs. She did not define her region as well as I like so I took the liberty to define what I think she intended. I took a rectangular region from 32.75N to 35.00N and 120W to 114.5W (which includes most of southern California). Based on seismicity since 1960, my method says there is about a 19% probability of an event in her 10-day window. In addition, there is a chance of an aftershock from the Hector Mine event of a year ago. This event did not produce as many aftershocks as expected so I downrated it from a magnitude 7.4 to a 7.0 to produce a number close to reality. The Jones-Reasonberg formula says there is a 17% probability of 4.0 or greater event in her 10-day window. Combining these probabilities gives a final probability of 33%. We'll now wait for the window to close and see if she gets at least one hit.