Well, here's a little food for foddor. If you were sitting where I am tonight, 3 miles from the Rodgers Creek Fault, its unbelievably quiet, no crickets chirping, no dogs barking, and the occasional car passing. The air is as still as it ever gets around here and its rather warm compared to the temps of the last week. Spells earthquake to me.

So how does one equate this to an earthquake forecast? Just like this:

Location: Rodgers Creek Fault, between Santa Rosa and within 2 miles of the City of Rohnert Park.
Magnitude: 3.0 to 4.2 (most likely 3 or just above.
Date: 9/6 9:48PM to 9/11 Midnight

Why? When the Bolinas quake occurred last year, immediately after it was quite obvious there were a series of small quakes that gave me the impression of a wave expanding on shore from the South to the Northeast. Since the quake in Yountville the other day, there is much micro activity all around this area. Rohnert Park is the weak link in the Rodgers Creek, though Santa Rosa could easily have problems as well. But in the past three years, Rohnert Park has displayed occasional behavior where the rest of the fault has been mostly quiet. There is a locked segment at the lower end of the fault near the bay, which one day may bring on a 7.0, but the Yountville quake seems to have sent its seismic waves north and east of its location.

So we've had the push inland and now the reverse, and in the middle of it is the RCF. Odds are not good for continued quiessence. Now while a 3.0 in some places occurs on a rather frequent basis, it doesn't around here. Since last years 4.2, no 3's have occurred at all. So its better than random chance if it shows up.

I think I disagree with you on Central America. I'm looking for more activity in Indonesia, Alaska and Japan, for globals. But also, lets not forget Turkey is still unsettled, along with Taiwan.

From North of the Golden Gate..Humble Opinions..Petra Challus